Things might get a little sparse around here over the next few days. I have to head down to Florida to cover the Red Sox big league camp for the next few weeks. Once I get situated, it will be business as usual.

Nick Underhill
February 21, 2010

Things are going to get real interesting over the next few weeks now that Johnny Damon has agreed to terms with the Tigers.

The bottom line is, a bunch of people who were working their way towards a promotion are going to get their growth stunted.

I’ve had Austin Jackson penciled in for a spot with the Major League roster since the deal happened, but now that Damon is on board, things seem a little bit more crowded now and the need to rush Jackson isn’t there anymore. Which might actually be a good thing for him.

The last thing he needs to deal with as he tries to transition into a new club is the pressure of filling the void that fan-favorite Curtis Granderson’s departure created. Damon can slide into that role.

There’s six guys that are going to be competing for major league time — Magglio Ordonez, Austin Jackson, Johnny Damon, Carlos Guillen, Ryan Raburn, and Clete Thomas — with presumably five roster spots available.

The only thing that makes sense to me would to have Jackson start the season in Toledo. Ordonez, Damon and Guillen are locks. If Jackson sticks around Guillen likely becomes the team’s designated hitter and Thomas becomes a utility player and the situation gets a lot messier. My guess is that Jackson spends at least some time on the farm and they bring him in a month to stunt his arbitration clock if he proves he’s ready.

With Jackson in Toledo, now its outfield is overcrowded. My guess would have been that Jeff Frazier, Brennan Boesch, Wilkin Ramirez, Casper Wells and Deik Scram would have started the season there. You add Jackson and things get tricky.

I would say that Ramirez and Wells are locks. Casper has earned a promotion and has already done two campaigns in Erie, it’s time for him to get a better look. Scram has also put in a few years in Erie, but he’s not exactly a ‘prospect’ at this time — at least not at the level of the others. Boesch played well in Erie and could certainly use some seasoning, but I’d say he’s safe. Frazier is nothing more than an organizational soldier at this point.

I’ve bashed Boesch for his shortcomings, but I think you have to give him a look in Toledo and see if he can keep growing. I think the odd man out would either be Scram or Frazier, and at this point I would venture to say that Frazier would be the one forced out.

It’s a tough call, and I really hate to go on record with a prediction. But I don’t see any other reasonable option without hurting someone more valuable’s development. Frazier’s one of the best guys you’ll ever meet, and was one of my favorite players to deal with, but as much as I hate to say it, he’s nothing more than filler right now despite putting up decent numbers last year.

You can’t stunt a players growth for filler.

This is why people love Brennan Boesch. He just murders this ball. Centerfield is 400 feet, so your guess is as good as mine how far that ball went. I’d guess 430.

Scott Sizemore battles through an at-bat that ends in a pop-up. I love his compact swing. His wrists get through the zone very quickly. Definitely a plus-hitter. As you can see here, he’s a battler.

Ryan Strieby hits a line drive. You can’t really see much here except for a glimpse of his power and that he has pretty good bat speed.

Casper Wells home run from the Arizona Fall League.  Hat tip to ProspectTube.com for the next few videos that show up.

Nick Underhill
February 20, 2010

Ryan Strieby has been a hot-button topic for debate among Tigers’ fans this winter. Some are ready to crown him the offensive jewel of the farm system, others say he’s simply just a slugger with little else to offer.

Watching him last summer before the injuries set in was just ridiculous. This was a guy that was clearly too good to be in Double-A baseball. From the first game when he hit two homeruns, there wasn’t a park or pitcher that could contain him.

It was a common occurrence for players to hit balls off the hockey arena that stands right behind the 312-foot left field wall. Strieby made it his practice to hit balls over the 50-foot structure.

He finished the season with a .303/.427/.565 batting line with 19 homers and 58 RBIs in 86 games, but those numbers surely would have been much higher had not been robbed of 50+ games due to injuries.

It should also be noted that he began having issues with his surgically repaired hamate in mid-June. 14 of his homers came before July 1.

Everywhere Strieby has went he’s hit the laces off the ball. In 2008, while with Lakeland, he set a franchise record with 29 homers and posted a .278/.352/.563 batting line.

The most impressive statistic, though, is revealed in his walk totals. In 2008 he recorded 46 walks over 421 at-bats. In Erie, he raised that total to 57 over 294 AB’s.

He exceeded everyone’s expectations last year. The Minor League Equivalency calculator projected that he would hit .275/.342/.550 with 28 homers, 19 doubles, 43 walks and 103 strike outs in Erie based off his Lakeland numbers.

But still, people are apprehensive about him. Most scouts still say that he is simply ‘a bad ball hitter’ and that he won’t perform at the major league level. They all agree that the power is real, but don’t think that he could hit for average at advanced levels.

From the Baseball America 2010 Prospect Handbook:

“He stays inside the ball well and can hit to all fields, but there are holes in his swing and he’s an average hitter at best, projecting to hit around .250 in the major leagues.”

The trusty MLE calculator doesn’t disagree, placing his batting line at .235/.324/.416 at the Major League level based off his Erie stats.

Looking at his numbers it’d be hard to fathom this. But, there is a slight discrepancy. His batting average on balls in play last year was .355. A regular BABIP is about .300. Either one of two things were happening — A.) he was getting really lucky, or B.) he was simply hitting the hell out of the ball.

It’s probably somewhere in the middle of those two outcomes. .355 is a little unreasonable, but for someone that hits the ball as hard as Strieby, a BABIP of .325 isn’t that far-fetched. .315 is probably more realistic.

The real problem here is finding a place for him to play. Miguel Cabrera is a lock at first for the foreseeable future.

In an effort to find a place for him, the club tried to move Strieby to left field, but the results were comical. With his awkward feet and lack of instincts, Strieby looked like a poor man’s Chris Duncan out there. His best bet is to steal at-bats at DH, but Detroit already has plenty of bats that can hit for power on its bench.

The best thing Strieby has going for him is that he has exceeded expectations everywhere he has went. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if he does it again in Toledo or Detroit.

A lot of the early projections have him back at Double-A. If that were to happen, it would be a disgrace. He’s proven that he’s ready for Toledo.

Give him a shot and see what he can do.

By Nick Underhill
February 19, 2010

It’s interesting to me to see how other people grade prospects.

The differences are baffling sometimes, and I guess to some degree it depends on who your contacts are.  Often times the people putting together these lists have only seen a handful of them play, or, at best, have seen many of them only a couple times.

So they call up some scouts to fill in the blanks for them.  This isn’t exactly an awful option, but if you are speaking to people who favor talent over projectability, or vice-versa, you are going to find wild differences in opinions.

The reason I bring this up is because the differing opinions on Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt that have surfaced this winter.

How can different publications be so apart on certain players?

Baseball America puts Weinhardt at 12 and Satterwhite at 14, while Fox Sports has Satterwhite at 14 and Weinhardt 22.

That’s quite a difference.

For my money, I’d take Weinhardt over Satterwhite any day of the week.

I know that Satterwhite has all the potential in the world, which is the first thing any of his supporters will bring up. Call me cynical, but I’ve seen too many baseball players fail to deliver on their talent to just give them the benefit of the doubt without results.

Satterwhite can throw the ball 98-mph, I even saw him touch 99 a few times, and he sits in the 94-96 range. Which is great, but it doesn’t mean a thing if you don’t know where the ball is going. And Satterwhite had no idea where the ball was going. Ever. He was Ray Charles out there on the mound.

For how good he can be at times, he was a guy that you dreaded to see come out of the bullpen. There were few times you felt comfortable watching on the mound. This is a stupid measure to judge talent by, but for someone that is supposed to be a future closer, you should have at least some faith him.

Just look at the numbers: Satterwhite walked 27 batters and threw 12 wild pitches in just 49 innings last year. That’s not good.The joke about Satterwhite was that his delivery was like a snowflake: you never got the same one twice. As bad as that joke is, it’s the truth. He’s just wild out there with his long limbs flying everywhere.

This could cause major problems later in his career outside of affecting his ability to command the ball. Near the end of the season he hit the disabled list as a result of his poor mechanics, causing him to sit out the Arizona Fall League.

In other words, Satterwhite is completely raw.

Weinhardt isn’t.

He gets results and is probably ready for the major league level today. His ceiling is probably as a set-up man, while Satterwhite’s is as an all-star closer, but between the two, I’ll take the man that is at least showing he can touch on his potential.

He’s no slouch, either. Weinhardt can touch 95 on the radar and has a solid slider and change-up to go along with his heater. He does very well with what he has. Last season he posted a 2.30 ERA with 32 stirkeouts and 16 walks in 31 innings in Erie, after posting a 0.85 ERA with 40 strikeouts and 10 walks in 22 innings at Lakeland.

He finished up his year nicely by leading the Arizona Fall League with 29 strikeouts in 18 innings.

He’s ready.

So, as of now, I’d have to rate Weinhardt ahead of Satterwhite. In a year, it could end up going the other direction, and I hope it does. Satterwhite could be one of the more exciting prospects in baseball if he could harness his raw skills, but today I think you have to side with the guy that is showing progress.

Hat tip to Brian Packey for sharing the link.

By Nick Underhill
February 16, 2010

There’s a few interesting names that will be taking to the fields in Lakeland when big-league camp opens as non-roster invitees.

Phil Dumatrait (LHP), Enrique Gonzalez (RHP), Josh Rainwater (RHP), Cody Satterwhite (RHP), Robbie Weinhardt (RHP), Robinzon Dias (C), John Murrian (C), Eric Roof (C), Mike Rabelo (C), Max St. Pierre (C), Kory Castro (3B), Jeff Larish (1B) and Gustavo Nunez (SS).

A couple names on that list have a shot at winning a spot, particularly one of the catchers since the early word is that Alex Avila will start the season at Toledo so he can get consistent playing time.

For the most part, I’m looking at the relief pitchers.

The Tigers have a plethora of relievers on their roster, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Robbie Weinhardt to leave camp in a Tigers hat.  He was lights out in Erie, posting a 2.30 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 16 walks over 31 innings. He then went on to lead the Arizona Fall League with 29 strikeouts in 18 innings.

Cody Satterwhite has a ton of tools, but has far too much to work on before he’ll get a serious look.